As was the case with Paris last year (depressing as it is to say that…), I won’t make speculations about the complex forces in play. See what I said in the wake of that attack to get my feelings on this. All I would add here is that you should take a look at this diagram:
Whilst acts like those in Brussels on Tuesday are as disgusting and shocking as ever, we have to retain perspective. Despite the general mood and prevailing idea, you are less likely to be killed by terrorist action in Western Europe than you were in even the 1990s, let alone the ’80s or ’70s. When these acts do happen, its true that they are often on a larger scale – Paris and Madrid are prime examples.
However, they are exceptions rather than the rule. The shock factor is so far greater than the numbers killed, and we of course don’t want to make it a numbers game. Comments like those of Manuel Valls about how we are now ‘at war’ may make sense as an emotional and political response, but the atmosphere goes way beyond what the scale of atrocities should have created.
Anders Breivik killed far more people in Norway than died in Brussels all of whom were far less suspecting of an attack than those living in a city which has been on edge and preparing for something like this at least since Paris. We don’t seem to be afraid of the same thing happening again any time soon.
The point is not to downplay the events in Paris, Brussels or anywhere else listed on that statistic – we know that many more attacks must have been prevented. Security and intelligence services across Europe are thankfully incredibly effective. Single acts of aggression are also more significant given the fact that suicide bombers by definition don’t plan an escape route.
My point is that whilst standing in solidarity, we should also remain as calm as possible. Everyone knows that the goal of terrorist organisations are to create a mindset and force political/social change without waging a conventional war.
Perspective and realising how safe still are is therefore crucial. The Huffington Post quotes Dr. Adrian Gallagher, Associate Professor in International Security at Leeds University on this, and he really says it all.
“The reality is… Western Europe is safer now than it has been for decades and is far safer than most other parts of the world. At the broader level, the data supports the idea that we are now living in the most peaceful period of human history. These graphs support the idea that Western Europe is perhaps more peaceful now than at any point in modern human history.”
(highlights mine)
The danger is there – but it’s distant, sporadic and mercifully rare. Millions of people live in Western Europe and whilst many have tragically died, these deaths are fewer now than ever before. The failure to provide food, housing or mental health care kill thousands more every day.
Islamic terrorism exists, but please remain calm and remember that we’re safe.
Harry Brennan - Seeing where it all takes me 
That’s really interesting. I read recently that in the USA you are more likely to be killed by a child with a gun than a terrorist.
LikeLike
Wouldn’t be surprised – whole host of other things for Americans to think about
LikeLike